On July 6, 2022, the Breakthrough Institute released the report Advancing Nuclear Energy: Assessing Nuclear Deployment, Investment, and Implications for America's Clean Energy Future. As a stable, sustainable, flexible source of clean energy, advanced nuclear power will play an important role in the transition to a clean energy system in the United States, with good economic, social and climate benefits, the report said.
1. Advanced nuclear energy has huge potential
According to the report, the first advanced reactors deployed in the United States are mainly of three types: small modular light water reactors, high temperature gas-cooled reactors, and reactors with thermal energy storage systems (TES). Based on these three reactor studies, the institute provides a more comprehensive estimate of the decarbonization potential of advanced nuclear energy systems.
The study suggests that widespread commercial deployment of advanced reactors will begin in the early 2030s, and that nuclear generation could provide about 20 to 48 percent of total domestic electricity generation by 2050. In 2035, the installed capacity of advanced nuclear power deployed in China will reach 19 million to 48 million kW, 54 million to 150 million kW in 2040 and 190 million to 470 million kW in 2050.
If commercial deployment of the first advanced reactors begins in the early 2030s, nuclear power will make an important contribution to the United States' carbon reduction goals. Advanced reactors are more flexible than intermittent renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, providing more stable, reliable power that can be supplied throughout the day. As such, advanced reactors effectively complement other clean energy technologies and can support the creation of a clean, stable, balanced, and diversified energy mix to meet America's future electricity needs.
Models published by the institute suggest that the United States should develop nuclear power as part of the clean energy transition: cumulative investment in advanced nuclear power plants is about $150 billion to $220 billion by 2035, rising to $830 billion to $1.1 trillion by 2050.
By 2050, advanced nuclear power will be a significant part of the U.S. electricity mix, so the cost of advanced nuclear power will largely affect retail electricity prices across the country. Early capital investment and accumulated construction experience can significantly reduce the cost of advanced reactor projects and the levelled kilowatt-hour cost of advanced nuclear technology, thus facilitating the large-scale deployment of new reactors across the country.
2. Get good benefits
The full use of advanced nuclear technology to promote the clean energy transition can achieve good economic, social and climate benefits. Economically, the development of advanced nuclear technology during the transition to clean energy can help reduce the cost of the country's clean energy system in the future; Heat and steam from advanced nuclear power plants can provide reliable, clean energy for sectors such as the heavy industries that are hard to decarbonize; In addition, advanced reactors can be built in existing fossil fuel power plants to replace fossil energy with clean energy and promote the regional energy transition.
In terms of social effects, the establishment of an advanced nuclear energy system will create new jobs in the production, construction, operation and maintenance of nuclear power plants. By 2050 alone, 74,000 to 223,000 permanent jobs will be created in operation and maintenance.
On the climate front, it can spur a global clean energy transition and provide a demonstration for advanced reactors around the world, while improving U.S. competitiveness in advanced reactors and helping the United States become a leader in clean technology.
3. Countermeasures and suggestions to break through existing obstacles
Increasing the cost-efficiency advantage and economic competitiveness of advanced reactor deployment may face a number of challenges. According to historical experience, increasing the output power of nuclear power units requires expanding the number, size and scale of nuclear power plant equipment, which increases the technical complexity and the potential points of failure. Technical issues are further driving the development of more regulatory standards and review processes. Future advanced nuclear deployment is also likely to face difficulties such as cost overruns, supply chain shortages and regulatory licensing process constraints. In order to break through the above obstacles, the research institute puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions:
● Avoid overspending. Cost overruns and construction delays are common problems in nuclear power plant construction. Completed before should perfect the construction of nuclear power project management, construction engineering design, integration of the supply chain, minimizing the subcontract, to quality control throughout the entire construction process, avoid the construction tardiness, changes in replacement of the contractor, the construction design, to build falls below part due to the project cost overruns, improve construction efficiency, according to the plan on time delivery.
● Develop supply chains. The current U.S. supply chain cannot support the deployment of future advanced reactors and needs to accelerate the development of fuel and component manufacturing supply chains. Fuel and component manufacturing capacity should be increased, quality grade certification should be improved, and infrastructure needed for strategic nuclear equipment manufacturing should be invested to support multiple types of reactors. At the same time, avoid monopoly, enhance the market competition of domestic manufacturers, encourage the participation of multiple suppliers in the construction. Another effective way to prevent monopolies is to continue the Accelerated Nuclear Innovation Gateway (GAIN) program led by the U.S. Department of Energy, which provides technology developers with expertise in key technologies and national laboratories, so that companies and national laboratories can work together to develop and commercialize advanced reactor technologies.
● Establish a reasonable regulatory framework. So far, the only advanced reactor that has received NRC design certification is NuScale Power's 60,000-kilowatt small modular reactor. The certification took five years and cost about $70 million. Before a nuclear power plant can be built, a series of review procedures have to be completed. The biggest problem for advanced reactor developers now is that the current regulatory regime is set up for existing conventional large light-water reactors, making it difficult to get new reactor designs certified. Accelerating the development of a new federal regulatory framework for multiple types of advanced reactors and streamlining existing rules will now be key to ensuring that new advanced nuclear programs are licensed and built in a timely manner.
● Reduce restrictions. As of February 2022, 12 states have imposed restrictions or bans on new nuclear power plants, mainly because waste cannot be stored safely. However, historical experience shows that high-level radioactive wastes can be transferred to safe, reliable and stable disposal repositories. State barriers to the deployment of advanced reactors will hamper efforts to achieve decarbonization goals at the state and national level. Therefore, it is necessary to lift the moratorium and restrictions on nuclear power projects at the state level. Reducing the restrictions will expand market opportunities and attract new investment to the states.
● Provide policy support. Active public policy will be the driving force behind the development of advanced reactor technology in the United States. Among them, fiscal policy support can help reduce initial project costs, reduce capital risks, stimulate technology development, and promote manufacturers and suppliers to compete and develop. Non-fiscal policies help to promote the site selection of nuclear power plants, organize personnel training, and standardize spent fuel management. This can be done through federal loan guarantees, environmental impact prequalification and feasibility studies, accelerated regulatory licensing modernization and fee reform, technology-neutral clean energy tax credits, inclusion of nuclear energy in the national clean energy portfolio standard, and support for the export of advanced nuclear projects.
4, summary
Advanced nuclear technologies can play a key role in the low-cost decarbonization of the nation's power sector, effectively supporting renewable energy systems, creating higher value for a clean grid, and have significant market potential. Emerging advanced nuclear technologies will ultimately improve their market competitiveness in terms of cost, parameters, and customer needs. Initially advanced reactors may be most competitive for specific target markets and customers. However, as advanced reactor deployment expands and the demand for stable energy grows, advanced reactors will be adopted at scale across the country, supporting the country's clean energy strategy.